RESETTING THE NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT AGENDA

The proliferation of nuclear weapons and related material constitute a source of risk to the survival of mankind. Estimates tally the global nuclear arsenal at 30,000 warheads.

EUGENE JAMES

The evolution of nuclear technology, since the inception of the Cold War, renders each warhead particularly lethal. One must bear in mind that the nuclear bombs released on Hiroshima and Nagasaki contained a few kilotons of TNT, whereas nowadays a nuclear strike has a potential to unleash the power of several megatons of TNT. Despite the existence of agreements such as the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), one cannot be certain that nuclear arsenals are immune from technical failures or worse that they are kept out of reach from ‘terrorists’.

The task of monitoring the accumulation of nuclear stockpiles constitutes a stumbling bloc for organizations such as the United Nations due to the degree of secrecy associated with nuclear arms programmes. There are five nations that are officially entitled to possess nuclear weapons, which are the United States, Russia, Great Britain, France and China that are incidentally the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (P-5). The ‘rest’ are eligible to develop civil nuclear programs in their respective countries and to receive assistance from the P-5 nations towards the fulfilment of that end.

In the current security framework, the P-5 nations must be at the forefront of Nuclear Disarmament talks since they wield the power to pass resolutions or on the contrary to block resolutions within the United Nations Security Council. In fact, according to the current Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon nuclear disarmament “is back on the agenda”, which owes to ongoing consultations between the P-5 nations within the Security Council. He proposes a plan of action to achieve disarmament that is articulated in a five point plan. The five points consist of principles that are meant to serve as guidelines in the process, which are (a) transparency, (b) irreversibility, (c) compliance, (d) a multilateral framework and (e) exercise of political will.

The efforts of Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to promote a safer world are reinforced by former President of the Soviet Union and former of Green Cross International, Mr. Mikhail Gorbachev who entirely backs multilateral initiatives within the framework of the United Nations to address the issue of disarmament and to promote good governance. Mr. Gorbachev is concerned about the current economic model that he regards as outdated and that requires in his opinion instead an alternative “new model of development”. Recent attempts to overhaul the economic system demonstrate in his view that multilateral responses constitute the most effective tool for reform.

Mr. Gorbachev is critical of governmental expenditures geared to defence budgets since in his opinion they draw resources away from economic and social development projects. Furthermore, Mr. Gorbachev considers that nuclear weapons programs undeniably represent a source of danger to mankind. He characterizes the threat from several angles that encompass the problem of proliferation, the risk of technical failures and finally a scenario wherein nuclear weapons come under the control of ‘terrorists’.

Mr. Gorbachev speaks from his personal experience that gathers an array of historical landmarks. His political career spans several years of the Cold War and under his own tenure relations between the Soviet Union and the United States improved. His outreach to late Mr. Reagan provided the momentum for a global disarmament movement. He refers to his meeting with Mr. Regan in Geneva in 1985 when the two leaders of the respective Superpowers reached a consensus that “a nuclear war can never be won and therefore must never be fought”.

Ever since, Mr. Gorbachev notes with certain dismay that the global disarmament agenda has undergone changes which are rather unsatisfactory. In fact, he argues that the demise of the Soviet Union dealt a blow to prospects for increased global disarmament that corresponds in his terms to “a stall”. He illustrates his standpoint with references to issues such as the shortcoming of “verification processes” and the “threat of a nuclear arms race”. Mr. Gorbachev ascribes several causes to the stalemate of the global disarmament agenda. In particular, he claims that the end of the Cold War provided a carte blanche to successive United States administrations to conduct wars through a relentless and unchecked use of force. Moreover, he argues that the blame cannot be purely imputed to nations such as North Korea and Iran that constituted an “axis of evil” in the words of former President George W. Bush. He reasons that the structure of global security involves trade-offs. When certain nations aspire to build absolute security for themselves, the consequence is insecurity for the rest.

Mr. Gorbachev recommends several measures to renew the global disarmament process. First of all, he proposes the drastic action of a total elimination of nuclear weapons, which in his opinion is necessary given the search for an elimination of nuclear danger. Secondly, he argues that governments must reduce their defence expenditures and “international politics need to be demilitarized”. He envisages a pivotal role for the United Nations in the pursuit of global disarmament. In fact, he is critical of ‘alternative’ institutions such as NATO and the G-8 that in his opinion tend to sideline the United Nations and multilateralism in particular. He recognizes however that “the UN is not perfect”, but he argues that “there is no better institution that can be invented”. Furthermore he concurs with Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon that there is a need to create “a nuclear arms convention”. Mr. Gorbachev also states that activity within the Security Council is essential to promote the interest of global disarmament. Consultations must be invigorated notably through the participation of the “military staff committee” from respective member states. Finally, Mr. Gorbachev believes that nuclear proliferation can be curbed through a resolution of regional conflicts.