INTERVIEW WITH WMO SECRETARY-GENERAL MICHEL JARRAUD

ANTICIPATING CLIMATE IMPACTS ON LIFE AND LIVELIHOODS

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is convening with partners the World Climate Conference-3 (WCC-3) in Geneva, from 31 August to 4 September 2009.
While mitigating greenhouse gas emissions is indispensable, adaptation will be an equally crucial component of the coordinated response to the climate change challenge.

MICHEL JARRAUD

According to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which WMO and UNEP cosponsor and which at the end of 2007 received the prestigious Nobel Peace Prize, a number of extreme weather events are anticipated to vary in frequency and/or intensity. In this article WMO Secretary-General Jarraud discusses WCC-3 objectives and climate change adaptation with UN Special.

Why is the WCC-3 being held now?
Many countries are faced with the unprecedented challenge of responding to the growing needs of communities being impacted by global and regional climate change. Food security, freshwater resources, health and environmental sustainability are vital for the attainment of the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), but they are increasingly affected by unprecedented climate variability and change. Therefore, communities’ capability to respond to these changes will depend critically on their ability to identify their vulnerabilities and to manage the risks and opportunities. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has called 2009 the “year of climate change” and expressed: “The world is watching us. The next generation is counting on us. We must not fail”. WMO is answering his call for action. The WCC-3 will take place before the Copenhagen UN Climate Change Conference (COP-15, 30 November to 11 December), which it will complement by offering decision-makers a solid scientific framework and information upon which to base policy decisions.

What is some current evidence for climate change?
The last IPCC report indicates that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level. Global greenhouse gas emissions due to human activities have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004. Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to this increase in human-induced greenhouse gases.
The expression “very likely” should not be interpreted as a lack of scientific consensus. In the context of the IPCC report, “very likely” means an assessed probability of occurrence larger than 90 per cent. Virtually all climate scientists agree today on the reality of human-induced climate change.

What has been WMO’s historical role in climate change issues?
Widespread recognition of climate change was not immediate when, in 1976, WMO issued the first authoritative statement on accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the potential impacts on climate. In 1979, WMO organized the First World Climate Conference, as a result of which WMO and UNEP established the IPCC in 1988. The Conference also led WMO and partners to establish the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). The 1990 Second World Climate Conference was a decisive stride towards the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It also led to the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), which supports systematic collection of all necessary climate data.

What does the IPCC say about future climate?
According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, there is high agreement and much evidence that with current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable development practices, global greenhouse gas emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades. Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century, very likely larger than those observed during the 20th century. For the next two decades an average global warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of emission scenario. There is high confidence that neither adaptation nor mitigation alone can avoid all climate change impacts; however, they can complement each other and together significantly reduce the risks of climate change. The IPCC report further predicts patterns of warming and other regional-scale changes, including winds, precipitation, sea ice and heat waves. A number of extreme weather events will very likely become more frequent, widespread and intense in the 21st century. Over the last 50 years, extreme hydrometeorological events like storms, floods and droughts have accounted for about 90 per cent of all natural disasters. With the IPCC projecting that such events are very likely to increase, it will be vital to reinforce nations’ capabilities to anticipate and to respond to hazards, particularly in developing countries which are among the most vulnerable. Unfortunately, while these countries are least responsible for generating the climate-change issue, they have few resources to prepare accordingly.

What are some of the anticipated impacts and what can we do about them?
Natural hazards cannot be prevented, but strengthening the capacities of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services can help to significantly reduce the death and destruction often associated with these hazards. Over recent years, early warning systems have increasingly contributed to effective natural disaster risk reduction so WMO supports the integration of climate predictions and information into these strategies. Another issue of vital importance will be to secure food and water resources in a changing climate. Dwindling global ice, combined with precipitation shifts, will significantly impact freshwater resources, while in some parts of the world desertification and drought will affect agriculture and food security. Appropriate climate predictions will be useful to food and water managers by providing them advanced estimates of essential weather parameters, thereby enabling farmers to adjust planting dates, crop harvesting and irrigation schemes accordingly. Climate variability and change also have the potential to affect health; for example, temperature and precipitation variability can favour the development of some pathogens, as well as the spread of malaria and other vector-borne diseases, while weather extremes pose additional risks by facilitating pollutant spreading. Another challenge will be the shift in migration patterns, as agricultural degradation, natural disasters, health risks and rising sea level may result in climate-induced migrations into areas lacking the capacity to shelter, feed or employ immigrant populations, a situation which would aggravate the risk of conflicts over the ownership of resources.

How will WCC-3 address these issues?
WCC-3 will contribute to the development and enhanced use of climate prediction and information for decision-making, thereby facilitating planning for and adaptation to current and future climate change. A key goal will be to establish a global framework advancing climate services and improving their application and use in the most vital socioeconomic sectors, including food, water, energy, public health, disaster risk management, tourism and transport. WCC-3 outcomes will thereby become key contributions to the achievement of the UN MDGs, the Hyogo Framework for Action on Disaster Risk Reduction and the emerging needs of the Copenhagen COP-15 session. By working together to deliver as One, the UN System will be able to effectively address the climate challenge.