Mélanie Mercier née Markowitz (14)

The crisis

Jean Michel Jakobowicz, UNOG

A three-storey house on 87th street, between Madison and 5th Avenue

John Gardiner is sitting in the basement of his house, in front of four large screens, which are switched off. He has lost lots of its pride and seems to have aged. His eyes are closed. Recent days events seem to have affected him quite a lot. Against all expectations, the stock exchange markets have collapsed. The various pension funds he owned have lost, following his most recent estimates, around 800 billion dollars. Some of them will be declared bankrupted in the coming days, if not in the coming hours. Several millions people have lost all their economies.

But it is not what really worries John Gar- diner. No, what is much more difficult to swallow for him, is to see all his empire, which he has so carefully built during the past 20 years being destroyed in a few hours and all this because of what…. Because of whom? Because of a small sand grain, which has introduced it selves in his perfectly oiled machine. Every thing was to go smoothly. Thanks to all the reports and articles he had commissioned throughout the world everybody should have believed that the economic upsurge was going to happen and that thereafter the stock exchanges would be going up. And it did start to work. Then, with his friends, he would have used this short-term upswing to get rid of all their bad stocks, just to be able to refloat his pension funds before the end of year audits and give the impression that was well. Even if there- after he had to sell all his pension funds companies and invest somewhere else.

Why did this d… report have to appear precisely at that moment? And why did these stupid Wall Street gamblers believe in what this stupid report was saying. Of course all his yesterdays friends had disappeared. Juan Ji, in Singapore, Jan Answer in South Africa, Erwin Mülbach in Switzerland and Michelle Lambert in London, none of them were answering his phone calls. May be, he thought with a kind of satisfaction, they didn’t even have enough money to make a phone call. On the money front, he didn’t have to worry. He had split his fortune in accounts all around the world and had invested in secure places and for sûre not on the stock market! The only thing he was worried about was his mere survival.

He knew very well that some people or trade unions would be very upset to have lost every- thing. Even if it was useless they would try to find a scapegoat, and he would be the one. That is why his personnel plane was waiting for him at La Guardia, to take him far away from New York. But before leaving he a number of axes to grind

Geneva headquarter of the Organization…

Mélanie was sitting in front of Christian Mel- nick, the Secretary General of the Organization. She seemed rather nervous. Christian Mercier was silent since awhile.

— Since this morning my telephone hasn’t stop ringing, he finally said. It is incredible how much your Survey is making a lot of noise this year. Furthermore the people who are calling are VIPs from all over the world and most of the time very upset VIPs. The playful tone he was using was contradicted by the seriousness of his face. We seem to be heading towards a major financial crisis. They claim that we are the cause of this crisis. — But I assure you… said Mélanie! — I know, cut the Secretary General. I know that if the worm hadn’t been in the fruit nothing would have happened. And that it is stupid to shoot the messenger. — Our financial system is totally perverted since quite a while, said Mélanie. It lives in another world, which has nothing to do with our planet. It is made up of rumors and speculations. When you know who does the decision in Wall Street, it is really scary. The fact is that all economic indicators are not good and the announced up turn is just pure electoral propaganda. Once the elections will be over the whole thing is going to collapse. I am sûre of it. — I believe you, my dear Mélanie, said Christian Mercier with a smile. It is incredible how, with your enthusiasm, you could convince anybody to do anything! — This being said, added Christian Melnick, these VIPs are asking me to publish a disclaimer and to say that something went wrong in our models. — And you are going to say it, asked Mélanie suddenly very tensed? The Secretary General didn’t say anything for a while, which increased the tension a little bit more. — Of course, not! It is our credibility, which is at stake. Even though the conclusion of our Survey may generate a lot of trouble, I think we should say it. Better now than in six months when it might be too late. At least now we can hope to start on new more sound bases.

France Info 7: 30 p.m.

— Today European stock markets have again closed down with a substantive drop. In the United States, during the last two weeks the Dow Jone has lost 52.3% of its value and the NASDAQ 66.4%. In Japan the Nikkei has also lost 59.4%. I have here with me M. Simon Grandpierre, from the bank Grandpierre and Sons. M. Grandpierre what is going to happen from now on? — I think the most important thing is not to panic. This slow down is a short-term one. A mere incident. It is based on a badly elaborated report, which will soon be disclaimed. The world economy is sound. The US upturn will pull all other economies of the world. We are currently witnessing a simple tremor, which should be corrected in the coming hours at worst in the coming days. — Which means that you would encourage your customer to buy? — Of course, it is right now the best moment to do it! — However there are a number of people who seem totally desperate, who even commit suicide: small savers as well as international experts. Some pension funds who have put all their assets in the stock market are going bankrupt and you remain positive? From where do you get such a confidence? — The stock market is a matter of belief. If you don’t believe anymore everything falls apart. I trust the system. Prices are going to go up! — Thank you Mr. Grandpierre.